In a country where a six-figure job offer once meant a golden ticket to an H-1B visa, change is in the air, this time in the form of a more calculated, wage-driven selection process. The United States is poised to move away from its long-standing random H-1B lottery system and toward a wage-level-based selection model, reshaping the future of work for thousands of aspiring immigrants and international students.While the new system won’t affect the 2026 H-1B quota, already maxed out, it signals a bold philosophical shift in how the US will define merit, skill, and value in its immigration framework.
What is changing?
Under the current system, H-1B petitions are selected by lottery when applications exceed the statutory cap of 65,000 general slots and 20,000 additional slots for individuals with advanced degrees from US universities. This approach, though administratively neutral, has long been criticised for failing to prioritise skill, experience, or even sectoral needs.Now, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) proposes a wage-based ranking mechanism. Echoing a shelved rule from the Trump administration, the new plan will prioritize visa allocations according to Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) wage levels, starting from Level IV (highest salaries) and moving down through Levels III, II, and finally I (entry-level).This fundamentally changes the game.The wage-level breakdown:
- Level I (Entry-Level): ~$83,000
- Level II (Qualified): ~$108,000
- Level III (Experienced): ~$127,000
- Level IV (Fully Competent): ~$151,000
These tiers are defined by the Department of Labor’s Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) codes and are tied to job responsibilities and market rates in specific geographic regions.
Who gains and who loses?
American tech professionals, especially those at senior and mid-level positions, have welcomed the change. For years, critics argued that the lottery system allowed companies, particularly outsourcing firms, to fill junior positions with lower-paid foreign talent, undercutting domestic wages. With wage-based prioritization, the hope is to restore integrity to the system and ensure that only highly skilled, well-compensated foreign workers are considered.On the other side of the spectrum, international graduates fresh out of US universities will find the road far more difficult. Entry-level H-1B sponsorships are likely to decline sharply, as employers face lower odds of success when offering Level I wages. Startups and smaller companies, too, may struggle to compete with tech giants able to pay top-tier salaries and secure visas more reliably.Moreover, this could create unintended friction at the top: mid-level H-1B talent with higher salaries could end up competing with seasoned American professionals for leadership-track roles—raising questions about displacement at the upper echelons of the workforce.
A shift in immigration philosophy
This is not just a procedural tweak. It represents a seismic reorientation of how the US views merit-based immigration. No longer will chance determine access to one of the world’s most coveted work visas. Instead, the market, expressed through wage offers, will drive selection.But that also means the H-1B becomes less a pathway for potential and more a reward for economic leverage.
Not without controversy
Critics argue that wages do not always equate to skill, especially across industries, locations, or roles. For instance, an AI researcher at a university might earn less than a mid-level engineer in a corporate tech firm. Should the system automatically favour the latter? And what about public service sectors, research institutions, and emerging startups that drive innovation but operate with tighter budgets?The proposal is currently under White House review and will go through a period of public comment. But the message is clear: the United States is tightening the screws on how it selects high-skilled foreign workers, and money now talks louder than ever.What students must know
- Entry-level H-1B chances will sharply decline
- Only higher-paying offers will stand a chance under the new rule
- F-1 to H-1B transitions could become far more difficult
- STEM graduates should explore employer pathways offering Level II+ wages
- Startups may no longer be the most visa-friendly options
- Consider long-term planning for green cards earlier
- Stay updated on White House reviews and DHS rule finalization timelines
In this evolving landscape, international students and skilled workers must recalibrate expectations. The age of H-1B as a gateway to opportunity may not be over, but it is undoubtedly being remapped, with salary slips now replacing luck as the ultimate key to the American dream.
