NEW DELHI: The KP Sharma Oli government’s failure to read the growing frustration and anger among Nepal’s youth over poor governance and accusations of corruption precipitated the political crisis that may see the army playing a crucial role in finding a way out of the impasse, experts and former diplomats said on Tuesday.
Nepal’s so-called Gen Z protest – triggered on Monday by a short-lived shutdown of popular social media platforms such as Facebook and Instagram – expanded to target the government over its perceived failings as a crackdown by police left 19 people dead and hundreds injured.
Incensed by the deaths, demonstrators defied curfew on Tuesday, attacked ministers and political leaders, and torched the Parliament as well as other official buildings in capital Kathmandu even as Oli – who began a fourth stint as prime minister in July 2024 – resigned and went into hiding.
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Ajaya Bhadra Khanal, research director for the Center for Social Innovation and Foreign Policy (CSIFP) Nepal, dismissed suggestions of a hidden hand behind the demonstrations that swept Kathmandu and other cities in just two days. “This was a very spontaneous protest as there was widespread discontent, especially among the youth, over misrule, corruption and crony capitalism,” he said.
“The Oli government introduced several bills intended to limit freedom of expression and to censor content, and there was growing executive control over the judiciary and parliamentary committees. Nepal was moving towards a very totalitarian system and the trigger for the protests was the social media ban,” Khanal said.
Another factor that triggered anger against the government and the ruling elite was a series of videos on social media in recent days focused on so-called “nepo kids” – the children of politicians and businesspeople enjoying luxurious lifestyles at a time when most youth in Nepal are struggling to find work. Youth unemployment was about 20% last year, according to the World Bank, while government estimates put the number of young people leaving Nepal every day to seek work abroad at more than 2,000 young people.
Manjeev Singh Puri, who was India’s ambassador to Nepal during 2017-2020, pointed to similar youth-driven protest movements in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, and said: “Nepal has one of the most globalised societies, and it’s not as if the youth were unaware of developments in Colombo and Dhaka.
“Nepal’s youth were affected by the stagnant economy, and they were seeing the same leaders heading the government for the past 10 to 15 years. The government was the obvious target of the protesters because it failed to read the pulse of the people. The protests were mishandled, touching a raw nerve among the people.”
No prime minister in Nepal has completed a full term since 1990, and the collapse of a government has usually resulted in the formation of coalitions of convenience by rivals, with power rotating among a handful of leaders in the past three decades.
The experts also pointed to the significance of social media platforms in the lives of Nepal’s youngsters, who make extensive use of social media to catch up on the news and stay connected with their relatives, including expatriates working in countries around the world. DataReportal, which tracks online activity around the world, puts the number of social media user identities in Nepal at 14.3 million, or almost 48% of the population.
Khanal described the Oli government’s efforts to get social media outlets such as Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, YouTube and Reddit to register with authorities as part of efforts to censor these platforms. He also said the top political leadership of Nepal – including former prime ministers Oli, Sher Bahadur Deuba and Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda” – were out of touch with the people and engaged in a game of “musical chairs” to remain in power.
“There was a lot of democratic backsliding and we had a hunch about a crackdown on protesters given Oli’s ego but what happened showed the criminal and incompetent face of the government. The state turned criminal as school children were shot down by the police,” Khanal said.
Puri said that in addition to ensuring accountability, authorities in Nepal will have to sagacity and empathy in engaging with the protestors to find a way forward.
Another former Indian envoy to Kathmandu, who didn’t want to be named, said India should adopt a completely “hands off” policy for now as it should not be perceived by the people of Nepal as taking sides with any of the country’s political players. “We should especially not be seen anywhere near members of the erstwhile monarchy or Oli, Debua or Prachanda – who are equally tainted – as that could burn us badly,” he said.
The developments in Nepal, coming after similar protests which removed the governments in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, should also be a reason for a closer look at the country’s “Neighbourhood First” policy, the envoy said.
With the Nepal Army pledging on Tuesday to protect the country’s independence, sovereignty and national unity and urging the youth and other sections of society to remain calm and maintain national unity, Khanal said he expected the army and the president to play a key role in deciding the way out of the political crisis.
“The army is in control and will have a say in what happens next. The army and the president will set the course,” Khanal said.
